Introduction

the COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, has had a great impact on the state of Rio Grande do Norte, as well as around the world, constituting a relevant challenge for public health. Since its emergence, the disease has spread widely, causing a significant number of confirmed cases and deaths in the state.

Objective

to analyze the trend of incidence, mortality and case fatality of COVID-19 in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, located in the Northeast region of Brazil, between 2020 and 2022.

Methods

consists of an ecological analysis of time series of retrospective secondary data in population level. Incidence and mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants were estimated, as well as case fatality and daily percentage variation, both expressed in percentages. The daily percentage variation was calculated using the generalized linear regression technique using the Prais-Winsten method, and served to classify the trend as increasing, decreasing or stationary, considering a significance level of 95%.

Results

data analysis showed the registration of 582,618 cases and 8,689 deaths from COVID-19 in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, during the period from March 2020 to December 2022. There was an initial increase in the incidence rate in 2020, followed by a significant reduction in 2021 and 2022. Mortality showed a decreasing trend in 2021 and a stationary trend in 2022, without notable variation in 2020. The case fatality rate decreased in 2020, but did not show significant trends in the following years.

Conclusion

the epidemiological analysis of COVID-19 in the state of Rio Grande do Norte revealed variations in incidence, mortality and case fatality over the study period. The daily percentage change over the total period of the incidence time series was stationary, while mortality and case fatality were decreasing.

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